In Defense of Weird

Leo en Econbrowser dos artículos muy interesantes:

En Not quite a recession Los autores (James D. Hamilton, Menzie Chinn) abordan la perspectiva de una posible recesión desde una visión muy peculiar: trabajando sobre datos mensuales del GDP (Gross Domestic Product – igual que el PIB mexicano) llegan a la conclusión que los EEUU no está todavía en una recesión.

I have developed an algorithm (described here and in more detail here) that looks at the full history of GDP data to refine that rule a little, based on a simple pattern-recognition procedure. Given the revisions in the data (and the great usefulness of having more than one quarter’s data to identify the most recent trend), I only use this to make a call as to where the economy was in the previous quarter. With the latest release of the 2008:Q2 GDP numbers, I’ve now calculated our recession indicator index for 2008:Q1, which turns out to be 38.4%. Based on a historical analysis of the algorithm, I would not declare a recession to have begun unless the indicator rises above 66%. So my current assessment is that a U.S. recession had not yet started as of 2008:Q1.

The plotted value for each date is based solely on information as it would have been publicly available and reported as of one quarter after the indicated date. Shaded regions represent dates of NBER recessions, which were not used in any way in constructing the index, and which were sometimes not reported until two years after the date.

Al día siguiente moderan la posible euforia con el siguiente artículo Not exactly a boom, either donde pintan una de las imágenes más impresionante de lo cerca que está la economía más grande del mundo de una recesión:

Though the monthly employment figures contain considerable measurement error and are prone to revision, a clearer picture emerges from the year-over-year percentage change, which is now negative. We’ve never seen a year-over-year decline in nonfarm payrolls without an economic recession.

The BLS also reported that the unemployment rate increased 0.2 percentage points to 5.7%. A spike up in the unemployment rate is another defining characteristic of an economic recession.